A meeting of the Governor's Drought Task Force was held on March 19, 2002 in Cheyenne. The key topic of discussion centered on the statewide drought that began in earnest in March 2000. State Climatologist, Jan Curtis reported that snow pack was running about 80 percent of normal westward from a line that extended from the Power-Tongue River Basin to Green River Basin and 60 percent of normal eastward. Although this is nearly 13 percent above last year's averages, based on a new drought triggers methodology developed by Curtis, the amount of snow pack required to end the 2-year drought would have to be 50 percent above normal in the central and eastern regions of the state and up to 30 percent above normal west of the divide. The latest long term precipitation forecast indicates that there is generally less than a one in five chance for the drought to end in six months. Reservoir levels are expected to average between 30 and 70 percent of normal as a result. Grassland yields are expected to be well below normal since soil moisture is seriously lacking and spring rains are expected to be below what is required for good yields.
The lack of water has prompted interest in weather modification through wintertime cloud seeding. Mr. Don Griffith of North American Weather Consultants, and Dr. Gabor Vali of the University of Wyoming gave presentations on this subject. Mr. Griffith indicated that during the past 20 years, Utah's cloud seeding program resulted in about a 14 percent increase in snow totals while Dr. Vali indicated that there has been no rigorous scientific study to validate any beneficial gains through cloud seeding. Additionally, there is no evidence that Utah's cloud seeding is robbing Wyoming's downwind precipitation.
Another presentation by Steve Gray, a graduate student at UW, focused on tree rings. Since 800 AD, in the region of the Big Horns, it was found that droughts can occasionally have durations between 50 and 100 years. In recent decades, droughts have been lasting only a few years and have been relatively mild in comparison.
Currently, all but two counties, Niobrara and Goshen, have been declared as drought emergencies by the USDA for tax relief for 2001 production. A similar drought emergency is anticipated at the end of the 2002 growing season
The next Drought Task Force meeting will
be held on 22 April at 10AM, location to be determined.